UK Retail Sales Brace for Impact: February Figures Forecast Decline Amid Economic Headwinds

1. UK Retail Sales Brace for Impact: February Figures Forecast Decline Amid Economic Headwinds

The level of February 2025 UK retail sales is forecast to record a month-on-month decrease of 0.3%, after a record 1.7% boost in January. The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) sales volume data showed a steep fall, as global trade tensions and weakened consumer and business confidence driven by the autumn budget hit hard. The CBI retail sales index dropped to -41 in March, its worst since July 2024.

Apart from the retail sales numbers, the UK will also publish final fourth-quarter GDP numbers. The numbers are set to reaffirm an initial estimate of 0.1% growth, or an annualized rate of 1.4% growth. Those numbers indicate that the UK economy is still under duress.

The market anticipates a weak retail performance, reflecting broader economic troubles. The expected decline in retail sales and confirmation of anemic GDP growth underscores the doom over the UK's economic prospects