FxWirePro: Daily Commodity Tracker - 21st March, 2022 
The November Services headline PMI rose further by one point to 55.9, surprising to the upside well above forecast and the consensus expectations. Despite today's rebound, it is believed that the October-November average is actually broadly unchanged from Q3.
The Composite PMI marginally rose, by 0.4pts to 55.8, with services offsetting the declines seen in manufacturing and construction. We calculate a slight increase in the October-November average against Q3. Manufacturing was dragged lower primarily by SMEs which faced contraction in the month despite larger firms seeing expansion. The construction index, meanwhile, saw its most significant decline since April 2015, dropping by 3.5pts to 55.3.
Although today's upside surprise is welcomed, caution is nonetheless required. The underlying categories provide a more mixed message and, nonetheless, there still exists notable declines on an October/November average relative to Q3 basis, notably in services' new business and business expectations.
Hence it does not change our cautious macro view on economic activity. Of some positivity, economists do note from the Markit PMI press releases that some firms felt an "improving confidence in the global economy", however could want to see this sentiment continue and feeding through into the hard data before reading too much into it.
"We expect business and consumer confidence to edge down gradually in light of the Government's announced fiscal consolidation plans, the apprenticeship levy announced in the Autumn Statement as well as ongoing EU referendum associated uncertainty, and so we believe both households and companies will come under further downward pressure, in the forthcoming months", says Barclays.
