USDCHF pared most of its gains on policy divergence between the Fed and the SNB. It hits a high of 0.80768 and is currently trading around 0.80084.
Driven by a significant manufacturing decline (-2.4%), mostly in Switzerland's GDP increased by just 0.1% in Q2 2025, a steep deceleration from Q1's 0.7%. -4.8% in the chemical and pharmaceutical industry and declines in exports (-2.7%) and imports (-3.7%) followed a robust previous expansion. While private consumption (+0.3%) and government spending (+0.9%) helped to create small domestic demand growth (0.1%), the services sector—including trade (+1.9%) and accommodation/food services (+1.5%)—showcased some resilience. But equipment (-0.8%) and building (-0.1%) expenditures declined, and SECO lowered its GDP predictions to 1.2% for 2025 and 0.8% for 2026, citing high US Key headwind, tariffs (39%) started in August 2025; additional economic information is due in September and October 2025
Technical Analysis Points to Further Downside
The pair is trading below the 55-EMA, below 2the 00 EMA and 365 EMA on the 4-hour chart, indicating a mixed trend. The immediate resistance is at 0.8090; any break above targets 0.8135/0.8170/0.8215/0.8250.
Support Levels and Potential Declines
On the downside, near-term support is around 0.8000; any violation below will drag the pair to 0.7980/0.7920/0.7860/0.7800.
Indicators (4-hour chart)
CCI (50) - Neutral
Directional Movement Index - Bearish
Trading Strategy Recommendation
It is good to sell on rallies around 0.8048-50 with a stop-loss at 0.8100 for a TP of 0.7860.
