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South Korea bonds gain on easing expectation, Yellen’s dovish speech

The South Korea’s 10-year bond prices gained on Wednesday amid following dovish comments made by the Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen. Moreover, South Korean government bonds also extended gains after Goldman Sachs Group Inc said in its report that changes in the central bank’s monetary policy board will likely spur further easing.

Meanwhile, 10-year government bonds rallied for a second day, with the yield dipping 4 bps to 1.77 pct. Similarly, the 3-year notes also climbed for a fourth month high (highest rally since 2014), the yield which moves inversely to price, was down 2 bps on Wednesday and in March to 1.44 pct (lowest since February 16 and dipped 22 bps this year). 

The Fed Chair Yellen at the Economic Club of New York said that caution in raising rates is especially warranted and the Fed has considerable scope for stimulus if needed and the central bank could deploy forward guidance and QE if needed. In terms of the outlook for rates, Yellen reiterated that the FOMC expects gradual rate increases in the coming years but noted that the future rate path is necessarily uncertain.

“Four new members named Monday by the Bank of Korea will constitute a majority on its board, and may be open to adding stimulus by lowering interest rates or through targeted asset purchases,“ said Goohoon Kwon and Irene Choi, an economists at Goldman Sachs in a report.

Apart from this, the Bank of Korea's monetary policy committee meets next week on April 19 to set the 7-day policy interest rate, which has been left unchanged at record-low 1.5 pct after seven rounds of reduction until June last year. 

We expect the BOK to cut in April, after holding its benchmark at a record low 1.5 pct for 9-months. This is supported by the increasing speculation in the market that the BOK may cut borrowing costs that are already at a record low, pushing bonds prices further up.

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