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The South Korean government debt instrument closed weak on Thursday as stock market rallied after FOMC minute met the market's earlier expectations to keep the dovish stance, adding an increase in the global oil prices also led to investors' confidence. The benchmark 10-year bonds yield, which is inversely proportional to the price of bonds rose 0.67 pct to 1.79 pct and 3-year bonds yield climbed 0.89 pct to 1.471 pct.
Meanwhile, the benchmark Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) moved up 2.57 points, or 0.13 pct, to finish at 1,973.89.
The South Korean bonds have been closely following developments in oil markets because of their impact on inflation expectations. Oil futures bounced off 1-month lows as Kuwait's OPEC governor and two sources said all signs suggested a meeting of oil-producing countries on April 17 would deliver an agreement to freeze output. Also, Oil prices rallied after industry data showed that U.S. stockpiles fell below the 9 million barrel per day mark last week for the first time since October 2014. The International benchmark Brent futures rose 0.28 pct to $39.95 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) jumped 1.09 pct to $38.16 by 8:26 GMT.
The Bank of Korea's monetary policy committee meets next week on April 19th to set the 7-day policy interest rate, which has been left unchanged at record-low 1.5 pct after seven rounds of reduction until June last year.
The South Korean exports fell less than expected in March, down 8.2 pct y/y (consensus was for –10.9 pct y/y) after –12.2 pct y/y in February. Moreover, March CPI inflation moderated to 1.0 pct y/y, lower than the consensus of 1.3 pct y/y) from 1.3 pct y/y in February.
We expect the BOK to cut in April, after holding its benchmark at a record low 1.5 pct for 9-months. This is supported by the increasing speculation in the market that the BOK may cut borrowing costs that are already at a record low, pushing bonds prices further up.
