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The minutes from Riksbank’s monetary policy meeting on July 6 indicate that it is concerned about global developments post UK’s vote to leave the EU. The minutes also showed that it is quite satisfied with the developments that have taken place in the domestic economy so far.
While the Swedish central bank has been emphasizing about uncertainty in global economy for a long time, uncertainty has increased even more due to the Brexit vote. Riksbank Deputy Governor Skingsley implied that “greater political risk premiums” would hurt economic growth in some jurisdictions.
Even if certain market participants have become quite concerned regarding Sweden’s housing market outlook, the Riksbank continues to call for additional measures to ease housing market, such as the build-up in household indebtedness, said Nordea Bank in a research note.
The developments of Swedish krona continue to be important, along with developments in inflation, particularly services inflation. At present, Sweden is in a “hand-off” phase from imported inflation through the krona to a domestic upturn in inflation, stated Nordea Bank.
Riksbank Deputy Governor Jansson mentioned that there is an upturn in five year inflation expectations, which is a sign that the central bank might “see through” several price shocks. If inflation expectations worsen, as happened in July, this might set off a more proactive Riksbank, according to Nordea Bank.
Jansson added that “relatively rapid growth” would be required to guarantee acceleration in inflation as anticipated. At present, the Swedish central bank might seem slightly upbeat regarding the GDP growth of both the UK and Sweden. Therefore, downward revisions to growth might set off additional stimuli, added Nordea Bank.
Overall, Riksbank’s July minutes affirmed the view that monetary policy, at present, is reactive rather than proactive, noted Nordea Bank. Worsening inflation expectations, appreciating SEK or disappointing growth might trigger additional stimuli.
