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Retail sales declined by 0.1% in December according to the advance Census Bureau report. This comes atop of stronger than previously reported November figures, whose pace of growth was doubled to 0.4% m/m.
Excluding autos and gasoline, sales were flat on the month, well shy of the 0.4% expected by economists. Excluding autos, gasoline, and building materials, the so called 'control group' also registered a decline, falling 0.3% m/m - with economists expecting a 0.3% gain.
Aside for the decline in gasoline stations (-1.1% m/m) which were driven by a 5.6% fall in gas prices on the month, sales also slumped in miscellaneous (-2.0%), general merchandise (-1.0%), and clothing stores (-0.9%). Food & beverage (-0.3%) and electronics sales (-0.2%) rounded out the declines.
On the flip side, sales at sporting goods stores (+0.9%), furniture (+0.9%), eating & drinking places (+0.8%), and building materials (+0.7%) exhibited the strongest monthly gains.
This was not the kind of report economists were hoping for. While the decline in the headline figure was to be expected, given the significant fall in gas prices, the pullback in the control group was a huge disappointment relative to the upbeat expectations for the key month for retailers. This suggests a weaker PCE profile during the last quarter of 2015, implying that GDP growth effectively stalled at year end.
Price declines were to blame for some of the weakness, as falling commodities and a rising dollar continue to weigh on most goods costs. Moreover, an unusually warm November and December have dented demand for winter wear, which is an important component of sales across many regions in this period.
The only silver lining in the report is the strong figures across discretionary spending categories, such as sporting goods and restaurants - suggesting that consumers are feeling pretty good about their job and income prospects. Moreover, the gains in building materials and furniture suggests that the housing recovery is generating a fair bit of support to consumption at this point.
"We expect that past and future job and income gains will continue to support sentiment and sales in 2016", says TD Economics in a report.
