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Polish wage growth likely rebounded in July, industrial production to have grown strongly
Polish labor market conditions have been rebounding constantly. The jobless rate has been historically low, while employment continues to grow at a sustained rate of a bit below 3 percent. According to an Erste Group Research report, nominal wage growth is expected to have rebounded towards 7 percent year-on-year in July, after soft growth of 5.3 percent year-on-year in June.
Meanwhile, industry is likely to have grown 6.5 percent year-on-year in July following a soft performance in June. A positive calendar effect is expected to have supported the July figure. However, market sentiment continues to be weak. The PMI index has been below 50 for a couple of months already, while local sentiment indicators are also in a downward trend. If industry disappoints, expectations for a bigger deceleration in the second half of the year might arise more visibly.
Polish retail sales are expected to have accelerated toward 7 percent year-on-year, after slowing in June, said Erste Group Research. Apart from the effect of more working days, the expectations for continuously high spending in the coming months is related to another round of fiscal easing.
“Weaker than expected retail sales growth may question the strength of the private consumption growth in the third quarter, weighing on growth expectations as well”, added Erste Group Research.