Poland current account balance likely to have come in surplus in November

The Polish current account is being underpinned by transfers of EU funds. According to a Societe Generale research report, Poland is expected to have recorded a surplus of EUR 105 million in November, as compared with a deficit of EUR 393 million in October. Exports and imports both are likely to have slowed down slightly in the month.

In November, Poland received about EUR 600 million in EU fund transfers, an increase from EUR 201 million received in October. This might be positive for the current account balance. Car imports are expected to have performed well, possibly rising 36.3 percent year-on-year in November because of expected changes in taxes.

However, this brings a risk of higher foreign trade deficit. The trade deficit is likely to widen in the months ahead because of strong private consumption growth. In the medium term, the expected production growth at the new Volkswagen factory might restrict the trade deficit, added Societe Generale.