The OPEC members after a long four-hour meeting in Algeria have agreed to a production quota between 32.5 million barrel and 33 million barrels per day. The final agreement would be reached at OPEC’ official November meeting. What that means for Iran, who is aspiring to increase its production share in OPEC.

In August, OPEC produced about 33.24 million barrels. Words came out from the meeting that Iran wants to reach its pre-sanction level above 4 million barrels per day before it imposes any freeze and it wants its share in OPEC production to be 13 percent. So under this new quota to get to the 13 percent, Iran would have to produce between 4.22 million barrels and 4.29 million barrels per day.

Let’s calculate based on the lowest point of the range. Now, Iran produced 3.63 million barrels of oil in August, so get to that 13 percent, Iran would need to produce about 0.6 million barrels, which it will very likely. OPEC produced 33.24 million barrels in August, so the organization will take a cut of 0.7 million barrels to reach to the agreed level.

So, the question we don’t have the answer to is, who would take these 1.3 million barrels per day hit? Will it be Saudi Arabia? Will it be distributed? We don’t know that yet. So the best thing to do would be to wait for the final agreement in November and see how its works for at least a quarter.