With OPEC members meeting in Vienna headquarter today, rumors are flying all around. One of them suggests that Nigeria which was granted an exemption from the OPEC deal last November could be asked to participate in the deal. While looking at the current levels of production of Nigeria (1.57 million barrels per day) and Libya (0.681 million barrels per day), we concluded that such would be unlikely. However, there does exist a counter argument based on future levels of production.

It is being forecasted that the worst for the Nigerian oil is over. The militant attacks in Nigerian Delta that almost halved the production of the country are finally receding. The attacked Forcados pipelines are likely to return to their full capacity by June and that is expected to push the oil production to 2.2 million barrels per day. In the first quarter of this year, Nigeria produced about 1.57 million barrels of oil per day, much lower than its pre-attack levels around 2.4 million barrels per day.

Nigerian oil minister said that he is receiving indications so far that OPEC will grant the country an exemption at today’s meeting.