With an OPEC deal, as well as an N-OPEC deal were done in late 2016, many expect a major rebound in oil prices in 2017, when the actual production cuts trigger in. According to the deals, members of OPEC and N-OPEC countries would jointly reduce oil production by 1.758 million barrels per day through the first half of 2017. While the amounts of cuts are quite significant, they may prove to be inadequate as higher oil prices would attract higher production from non-participating countries, especially the United States.

The oil price bottomed in early 2016 and ended the year 63 percent higher from that level. Incidentally, the oil production in the United States bottomed during summer and recovered from there along with higher oil price. In July, US crude oil production declined more than a million barrel from its peak and bottomed at 8.428 million barrels per day. Since that point, the oil production has increased by 340,000 barrels per day. According to top oil market analysts, the shale oil production might bounce by at least another 500,000 barrels per day in the United States, should the price move above $60 per barrel. Currently, the North American benchmark WTI is trading at $54 per barrel.

Not just the United States, but a higher oil price would see a faster revival in production from Canada, Mexico, and two exempted OPEC members; Nigeria and Libya, and such a revival would largely undermine the production cuts taken up by the participating countries.