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Norwegian oil investment survey likely to show higher growth for 2019 and 2020
The Norwegian oil investment survey is set to release next week. According to a Nordea Bank research report the Norwegian fourth quarter oil investment survey is likely to show higher growth in 2019 and 2020 compared to the third quarter survey.
The survey will show what oil companies plan to invest in 2019 and 2020, which is especially significant for the Norwegian manufacturing sector.
“For 2019, we believe the Q4 survey will indicate investments plans at NOK 184bn. This is somewhat higher than the previous survey which showed NOK 181bn. If we are right, the survey will indicate real growth of oil investments at 16 percent. This is slightly above Norges Bank’s forecast, but not enough for it to have any impact on Norges Bank’s interest rate outlook”, stated Nordea Bank.
The fourth quarter survey for 2020 is expected to show investment plans at NOK 191 billion. This is above the third quarter survey that indicated NOK 174. The 2020 figure would be revised and therefore, the final outcome is uncertain. Still, if the outcome of survey is as expected, the real growth in 2020 would be very close to Norges Banks’ forecast at 2.5 percent.
“In sum, we expect the forthcoming oil investment survey for Q4 to signal very strong growth in 2019 and a more subdued increase in 2020. Still, both 2019 and 2020 investments should be higher than previously expected. Overall, a survey in line with our expectations should not have any significant impact on Norges Bank’s interest rate outlook”, added Nordea Bank.