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Cross-hedging FX Strategies:
- We recommend leveraged products to sell EUR/NOK or otherwise buy far month NOK/SEK risk reversal.
- Real money funds should decrease NOK hedge ratios.
- Corporates should hedge NOK income via options and expenses via forwards.
Norges Bank (NB) is all set to deliver 25bps rate cut on tomorrow as promised in last monetary policy reporting in March. However, we expect NB to turn to a neutral bias by presenting a new rate path at which the policy rate will be kept on hold until next year. A neutral bias would be much more hawkish than what markets expect.
More tactically to avoid a stronger NOK, the primary risk to our projection is NB still signaling an easing bias due to a less 'straight-forward' view on the oil investment survey.
In our opinion, a minute risk that NB could leave the rate unchanged, as the stabilization in oil investments has reduced the tail risk.
