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NBP’s official interest rates likely be on hold through 2017

Poland’s economic growth has slowed a bit as he absorption of EU structural Fund is not optimal and therefore investment is decelerating. Hence, private consumption should be driving the nations consumption, thanks to continuous fiscal stimuli and decently rising wages. The Polish central bank’s official interest rates are likely to stay the same through 2017 even if inflation is expected to accelerate this year, according to KBC Market Research.

However, inflation is not expected to reach the central bank’s target rate of 2.5 percent. But market interest rates with longer maturities might be quite vulnerable in 2017, particularly if interest rates on important markets continue to rise.

Dollar market rates driven by likelihood of a rate hike by the Feb might keep the Polish zloty on the defensive, but the European Central Bank’s eased policy might offset such pressure. Furthermore, the country’s continuing upturn and the central bank’s conservative monetary policy are fundamentally positive for the zloty from the medium-term perspective.

“Of the Polish macroeconomic fundamentals that should not allow the zloty to weaken significantly, we should mention the very well developing balance of payments and growing FX reserves”, added KBC Research Market.

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2017-10-17 15:31:17
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2017-10-17 15:30:41
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October 17 14:00 UTC Released

USNAHB Housing Market Indx*

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68 %

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64 %

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64 %

October 17 13:15 UTC Released

USManuf Output MM

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0.1 %

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0.1 %

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-0.3 %

October 17 20:00 UTC 189189m

USNet L-T Flows,Exswaps

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1.3 Bln USD

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USOverall Net Capital Flows

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-7.3 Bln USD

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USNet L-T Flows,Incl.Swaps

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-43.1 Bln USD

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USForeign Buying, T-Bonds

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-0.5 Bln USD

October 17 21:00 UTC 249249m

KRExport Price Growth YY*

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10.7 %

October 17 21:00 UTC 249249m

KRImport Price Growth YY*

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9.0 %

October 17 23:00 UTC 369369m

KRUnemployment Rate*

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3.8 %

October 18 03:00 UTC 609609m

KRL-Money Supply Growth

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6.7 %

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