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NBP’s official interest rates likely be on hold through 2017

Poland’s economic growth has slowed a bit as he absorption of EU structural Fund is not optimal and therefore investment is decelerating. Hence, private consumption should be driving the nations consumption, thanks to continuous fiscal stimuli and decently rising wages. The Polish central bank’s official interest rates are likely to stay the same through 2017 even if inflation is expected to accelerate this year, according to KBC Market Research.

However, inflation is not expected to reach the central bank’s target rate of 2.5 percent. But market interest rates with longer maturities might be quite vulnerable in 2017, particularly if interest rates on important markets continue to rise.

Dollar market rates driven by likelihood of a rate hike by the Feb might keep the Polish zloty on the defensive, but the European Central Bank’s eased policy might offset such pressure. Furthermore, the country’s continuing upturn and the central bank’s conservative monetary policy are fundamentally positive for the zloty from the medium-term perspective.

“Of the Polish macroeconomic fundamentals that should not allow the zloty to weaken significantly, we should mention the very well developing balance of payments and growing FX reserves”, added KBC Research Market.

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April 28 21:00 UTC Released

MXFiscal Balance (Pesos)*

Actual

340.61 bln MXN

Forecast

Previous

-1.93 bln MXN

April 28 21:00 UTC Released

CNFiscal Balance (Pesos)*

Actual

340.61 bln MXN

Forecast

Previous

-1.93 bln MXN

April 30 01:00 UTC 9696m

CNNBS Non-Mfg PMI*

Actual

Forecast

Previous

55.10 %

April 30 01:00 UTC 9696m

CNNBS Manufacturing PMI*

Actual

Forecast

51.6 bln $

Previous

51.8 bln $

April 30 23:30 UTC 14461446m

AUAIG Manufacturing Index

Actual

Forecast

Previous

57.5 %

May 1 00:00 UTC 14761476m

KRExport Growth Prelim*

Actual

Forecast

15.3 %

Previous

13.6 %

May 1 00:00 UTC 14761476m

KRImport Growth Prelim*

Actual

Forecast

21.0 %

Previous

27.7 %

May 1 00:00 UTC 14761476m

KRTrade Balance Prelim*

Actual

Forecast

Previous

6.27 bln $

May 1 00:30 UTC 15061506m

USNikkei Mfg PMI

Actual

Forecast

Previous

52.8 %

May 1 00:30 UTC 15061506m

JPNikkei Mfg PMI

Actual

Forecast

Previous

52.8 bln $

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