Japanese headline inflation likely to have eased marginally in June

Japanese June CPI inflation data is set to release tomorrow. According to a DBS Bank research report, the headline inflation is likely to have eased a bit to 0.7 percent year-on-year in June from May’s 0.8 percent. The deflationary effect of the appreciation of the Japanese yen and oil price falls should have been shown in June inflation figures.

However, domestic price momentum is expected to have stayed stable for the time being, owing to the tightness in the labor market and the rise in public inflation expectations. The Bank of Japan might downwardly revise its growth and inflation projections during its upcoming meeting on 31 July, but only marginally.

“Given the relatively high technical hurdles, a significant economic/financial shock (e.g., recession, USD/JPY below 100) would be required to trigger additional monetary easing from the BOJ”, added DBS Bank.

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