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Indian bonds snap long rally ahead of INR110 billion government bond auction, investors await Union Budget next week

The Indian government bonds snapped a long streak of rally on the last trading day of the week ahead of the INR110 billion central government bond auction scheduled for later in the day. Also, investors remain worried over the 2017-18 Union Budget, scheduled to be unveiled on February 1.                             

The yield on the benchmark 10-year bonds, which moves inversely to its price, jumped 2-1/2 basis points to 6.44 percent, the yield on long-term 15-year note also rose 1-1/2 basis points to 7.08 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year note moved down 1/2 basis point to 6.29 percent by 07:10 GMT.

The Reserve Bank of India will auction four bonds worth INR110 billion today. The auction includes INR50 billion of the benchmark note.

The countdown for Finance Minister Arun Jaitley’s 4th Union Budget has begun and speculations are on surrounding a host of things.  In a week’s time, India will present the FY2017-18 budget against a challenging backdrop.

Apart from a busy state election calendar, there is considerable uncertainty over the impact of demonetization on growth. Implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) is also pending for the second half of the year, reported DBS Bank in its research note.

These factors have raised expectations for fiscal consolidation to be postponed to next year. We expect a more balanced approach, with recent gains from fiscal consolidation unlikely to be frittered away.

Lastly, markets are also awaiting the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) first bi-monthly monetary policy meeting of 2017, scheduled to be held on February 7-8.

Meanwhile, the 30-share benchmark Sensex traded 0.66 percent higher at 27,890.15, while the 50-share benchmark Nifty futures traded 0.51 percent or 44.25 points up at 8,645.75 by 07:20 GMT.

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