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Indian bonds gain ahead of inflation data; anticipation of pro-markets RBI boss lifts sentiments

The Indian government bonds gained on Tuesday as investors expect lower consumer inflation figure in June, which will provide support to the central bank for further monetary easing in the upcoming monetary policy meeting.

Also, rising speculations over the appointment of new Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor boosted demand for safe-haven assets.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year bonds, which moves inversely to its price fell more than 6 basis points to 7.321 percent, the yield on short-long 3-year bonds dipped 3-1/2 basis point to 7.008 percent and the yield on super-long 30-year bonds slid 8 basis points to 7.624 percent by 07:10 GMT.

India’s consumer price inflation, due to be released today at 12:00 GMT, is expected to have eased in June, raising the probability of a rate ease by the Reserve Bank of India in the near term.

Moreover, the June CPI inflation is expected to marginally ease to 5.6 percent y/y from May’s 5.8 percent but a shade above Jan-May average of 5.4 percent. Food prices are likely to account for a bulk of the pick-up, consisting of perishables (vegetables etc.) and non-perishables, especially sugar and related products. Domestic fuel prices have also risen in the month, mirroring global trends, DBS reported.

According to Reuters, two television news channels reported that Prime Minister Narendra Modi may name Arvind Panagariya as the next governor of the Reserve Bank of India. He is currently the vice chairman of top government think-tank NITI Aayog.

"Personally, I am a dove when it comes to inflation. It is not clear to me that once inflation has been brought down to 7-8 percent range, pushing the brakes further on money supply buys us a lot. Moreover, given that a very large part of the economy is simply cutoff from credit markets, it is not clear how effective the interest-rate hikes are in taming inflation", said Arvind Panagariya in an interview to the Wall Street Journal.

Meanwhile, the Sensex rose 0.40 percent or 110.04 points to 27,736.73 and Nifty-50 futures trading 0.10 percent higher or 11 points at 8,502 by 07:30 GMT.

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