Swedish jobless rate remains unchanged at 7.4 pct in September, wage growth unlikely to pick up soon
Fed’s dovish stance and balance sheet re-expansion likely to weigh on dollar in months ahead, says Scotiabank
Australia’s rise in September employment remains smallest in seven months; jobless rate likely to drift higher in near-term
China likely to maintain full year growth at 6.0 pct in 2019, unless GDP growth falls below 5.5 pct y/y in Q4, says ANZ Research
BI likely to lower policy rate by 25bp to support growth amid increasingly fragile global economy, says Scotiabank
Australian bonds flat in muted session after market sentiments improve following breakthrough Brexit deal
India unlikely to witness recovery in consumption or investment growth owing to sluggish demand, says ANZ research
ANZ Research’s latest monthly update for the Indian economy does not point to any meaningful recovery in either consumption or investment growth. Activity indicators have also weakened in August compared to July, led by sombre PMI readings. The lack of a clear recovery in these indicators underscores the concern that demand remains sluggish.
The government has in recent weeks announced several measures to prop up growth. The impact of such measures will likely be piecemeal, as the need is for a solid push for reforms. Therefore, the GDP forecast has further been downgraded to 5.8 percent y/y for FY20 (ending March 2020), the report added.
Consumption activity continues to pose the biggest drag on demand, led by weakening auto sales, which touched new lows in August. The slowdown is broad-based, across passenger and commercial vehicles, two-wheelers and tractor sales.
Imports weakened in similar vein, with non-oil and non-gold imports declining for the seventh straight month in August. Manufacturing activity is seeing mixed trends with a lack of sustained recovery. Lack of demand is leading to declining levels of capacity utilisation across firms.
"Amid a worsening fiscal position, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will likely follow up with more easing. We expect a 40bp reduction in the repo rate to 5.00 percent at the upcoming October meeting. Beyond that, we expect an additional 50bps of cuts in the remainder of this fiscal year, bringing cumulative easing to 200bps in the current easing cycle," ANZ Research further commented in the report.