Growth relative to trend - key driver of oil prices

Oil prices are still 42% below pre-July levels and fundamentals are still weak; only in the 1986 and 2008 episodes were oil prices at lower levels at this stage of the rebound. Sustained lower oil can still help support consumption and trade.

• The oil market adjustment was faster than expected.
  
  
• Better-than-feared 2015 supply imbalance was worth about 18% for oil prices.
  
  
• OPEC market share edged higher, supporting oil prices another 3.7%.
  
  
• The US dollar decline has boosted oil by 6%.
  
  
• The rise in speculative CFTC oil positions back to July 2014 levels explains another 4.7%.