GST tax regime, sluggish US retail sales point trading bets on Dollar/INR

For intraday and short term perspective we could foresee Indian rupee is likely to appreciate as weak CPI may likely boost the RBI to consider cutting rates for the 3rd time this year.

On the contrary retail sales in the US increased 0.90% in April of 2015 over the same month in the previous year.

In addition the investors remain anxious whether the Government of India will pass the GST and land bill thereby leading to weakness in the domestic market. But continuous outflow of money seen as selling of investments from the local equity markets by foreign investors cap sharp gains. So far in the month of May 2015, the total FII outflows seen Rs. 6570.28 crores ($1032.05 million).

Industrial Production data for the month of April declined to 2.1% as compared to 4.87% in March. CPI for the month of April decreased to 4.87% as compared to 5.25% in March.

On intraday perspective we recommend to short this pair on spot at 63.95, in the upcoming trading rallies, highs of 63.92 might result in an extended rally towards 63.60 levels.