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FxWirePro: USD on buying mood vs EM FX and HY beta G10 space owing to reducing vols – good for options holders

We get more data from Asia (IP and GDP from Singapore, Korea and Taiwan; China PMIs at the end of the week), which could provide clarity on whether the IP cycle is indeed bottoming out.

Despite these offsetting forces for the broad dollar, we continue to hold our USD longs vs. EM FX and high-beta G10 FX since,

  • These are held mostly via options with defined downside

  • Fed hinted that there is very little room for the market to expect rate hikes by the end of 2016 as the moderate pace of economic growth.
On the contrary, the latest US PMI reading keeps Fed hikes this year on the table and dovish central banks elsewhere could be supportive. A continued improvement in Asia data remains a risk, however.

So, Stay cautiously long USD vs. EM FX and high-beta G10 FX held mostly via options with defined downside.

USD-vols are on the verge of bottoming out as central banks (ECB/BoJ) turn into realized vol generators and liquidity declines seasonally into year-end. Buy USD/PLN vs EUR/PLN vol spreads for a revival.

  • Market Data
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