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Although AUDUSD attempted to bounce back yesterday, failure swings were observed exactly at channel resistance. Consequently, sharp shooting star has occurred at 0.7256 levels (refer daily plotting).
As a result, the current prices are still below 7DMA levels. While minor trend slides through sloping channel. for now, more slumps likely on shooting star formation at stiff resistance.
The stiff resistance at 0.7315 levels and steep slumps were observed. The trend seems to be slightly edgy as both leading indicators signal shrinking momentum.
AUDUSD in medium term perspective: The intermediate trend has been extending double top formation with breach below neckline and head towards 1 and a half year lows (refer monthly plotting), bearish engulfing candle followed by shooting star patterns plummet prices well below 7EMA again on this timeframe. In this journey.
Both RSI and stochastic curves have constantly been showing downward convergence to signal bearish momentum. While we see bearish EMA and MACD crossovers with rising volumes with dipping prices, this indicates downtrend to prolong further.
As a result, if you are foreseeing more bearish potential amid continued consolidation around 0.7200 ahead of the RBA cash rate decision scheduled for the next week. Thus, the prevailing rallies should not be deemed as long opportunities.
Trade tips: On trading perspective, at spot reference: 0.7233 levels, using any abrupt upswing, it is advisable to execute tunnel spread strategy with upper striking options at 0.7270 and lower short lower strikes at 0.7204 levels, the strategy is likely to fetch leveraged yields as long as underlying spot FX keeps dipping but remains well above lower strikes on the expiration.
Alternatively, on hedging grounds, we advocate shorting futures contracts of mid-month tenors as the underlying spot FX likely to target southwards below 0.70 levels in the medium run. Writers in a futures contract are expected to maintain margins in order to open and maintain a short futures position.
Currency Strength Index: FxWirePro's hourly AUD spot index is inching towards -120 levels which is bearish), while hourly USD spot index was at 63 (bullish), while articulating (at 09:23 GMT). For more details on the index, please refer below weblink:
