- NZD/USD holds major trendline support at 0.7250, intraday bias higher.
- Commodity outperformance could extend into this week, keeping the NZD supported.
- Also markets have priced in OCR on hold at 2.0% at Thursday’s RBNZ meet, with a signal of a rate cut in November.
- Any watering down of this explicit easing signal could likely cause a sharp rise in the NZD.
- 21 Sep FOMC announcement is another key risk event. Rates mostly on hold, but the statement should have a slight hawkish twist.
- Techs as of now do not have a clear directional bias, but some upside seen on intraday charts.
- The major finds stiff resistance at 0.7315 (trendline) on hourly charts, break above could target 0.7330 and then 0.7365 levels.
Recommendation: Good to go long on break above 0.7315, SL: 0.7250, TP: 0.7365/ 0.7380/ 0.74


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