Indonesia Surprises Markets with Interest Rate Cut Amid Currency Pressure 
European Stocks Rally on Chinese Growth and Mining Merger Speculation 
Bank of America Posts Strong Q4 2024 Results, Shares Rise 
Gold Prices Fall Amid Rate Jitters; Copper Steady as China Stimulus Eyed 
China’s Growth Faces Structural Challenges Amid Doubts Over Data 
BOJ Holds Interest Rates Steady, Upgrades Growth and Inflation Outlook for Japan 
RBA Deputy Governor Says November Inflation Slowdown Helpful but Still Above Target 
Bank of England Expected to Hold Interest Rates at 3.75% as Inflation Remains Elevated 
Geopolitical Shocks That Could Reshape Financial Markets in 2025 
Fed Confirms Rate Meeting Schedule Despite Severe Winter Storm in Washington D.C. 
Global Markets React to Strong U.S. Jobs Data and Rising Yields 
US Gas Market Poised for Supercycle: Bernstein Analysts 
Trump’s "Shock and Awe" Agenda: Executive Orders from Day One 
Bank of Canada Holds Interest Rate at 2.25% Amid Trade and Global Uncertainty 
BoE is scheduled for their monetary policy for next week. Ongoing political uncertainty indicates a continuation of the ‘wait-and-see’ message regarding the timing of the next bank rate hike.
Still, an expected upgrade to GDP growth in 2019 and the persistence of above-target inflation over the forecast horizon will do little to endorse the current ‘dovish’ market view on UK bank rate.
The urgency to hike anytime soon, however, is likely to be little changed, particularly with the outlook still clouded by the Brexit fog.
However, the quieter sentiment on the markets has got one major advantage. For all those who may not have hedged their GBP risks yet, the current situation provides a reasonably attractive entry level.
OTC outlook:
Negative bids have been observed in the GBPUSD risk reversals of 6m tenors. While positively skewed implied volatilities of 3m tenors have still stretched towards OTM put strikes. To substantiate this downside risk sentiment, risk reversals have also been signalling bearish hedging sentiments.
We reckon that the sterling should not suffer like before, but, one should not disregard the Brexit settlement risks on the other hand. The market has always ignored the fact that all the current BoE interest rate moves are due to a favourable result of the Brexit process.
Both the speculators and hedgers of GBPUSD are advised to capitalize on the prevailing price rallies for bearish risks and bidding theta shorts in short run (1m IVs) and 3m risks reversals to optimally utilize delta longs.
Strategic Options Recommendations: On hedging grounds, fresh delta longs for long-term hedging comprising of ATM instruments and OTM shorts in short-term would optimize the strategy.
So, the execution of hedging positions goes this way: Short 2w (1%) OTM put option (position seems good even if the underlying spot goes either sideways or spikes mildly), simultaneously, initiate longs in 3m ATM -0.49 delta put options. A move towards the ATM territory increases the Vega, Gamma and Delta which boosts premium.
Thereby, the above positions address both upswings that are prevailing in the short run and bearish risks in the long run by delta longs. Courtesy: Sentrix & Saxo
Currency Strength Index: FxWirePro's hourly GBP spot index is inching towards -77 levels (which is bearish), and hourly USD spot index has bearish index is creeping at 78 (bullish) while articulating (at 12:54 GMT).
For more details on the index, please refer below weblink: http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex
