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FxWirePro: Driving forces of BRICS currencies and hedging perspectives (Part 2)

CNY: A newspaper report this morning states that China’s central bank has sold USD473bn in foreign reserves to support its currency since August 2015, which roughly matches the reported drop in FX reserves (USD460bn). As valuation effects generally are hard to estimate, there is no perfect way to estimate how much a central bank has been active on the market.

However, the good news right now is that the capital outflows from Emerging Markets should ease due to the new market assessment on the Fed’s policy, which could give China’s central bank some breathing space in the foreseeable future.

On hedging grounds, the advice is to stay positioned in USDCNY via 2m ATM straddles by shorting 2w (1%) OTM puts.

INR: May CPI accelerated to a near two-year high of 5.8% YoY on higher food prices. It remains above RBI’s target of 5%, albeit still within the longer run target range of 2–6%. We expect inflationary pressures to ease in the coming months based on the current forecasts for an above-average monsoon for June to September.

A fruitful monsoon season may provide a cushion to keep a lid on food prices, which make up around half of the CPI basket. This should pave the way for RBI to lower its benchmark rates by at least another 25bps in the second half of this year but the monsoon has just begun and likely to last for 3-4 months.

As we foresee USDINR bullish continuation, it is advisable to stay long in far month futures.

ZAR: The South African economy shrank an annualized 1.2% over Q1 of 2016, compared to a 0.4% growth in the previous quarter and worse than market expectations of 0.1% drop. It is the first contraction since the second quarter last year, dragged down by mining and quarrying and transport sectors.

Technically, USD/ZAR is currently trading around 15.17 levels. It made intraday high at 15.21 and low at 15.12 levels. Intraday bias remains bullish till the time pair holds key support at 15.12 marks. A daily close below 15.12 will drag the parity down towards key supports at 14.96, 14.72, 14.64 (31/03/2016 lows) and 14.43(20EMA) levels respectively.

Considering both fundamental as well as technical rationale, we advocate buying the diagonal spreads ahead of downside pressures and dubious eyes on a continuation of the long-term uptrend.

Hence, go long in USDZAR 2M OTM delta call while shorting 2W ATM call with positive thetas for time decay advantage on shorter tenors on the short side.

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