2025 Market Outlook: Key January Events to Watch 
U.S. Banks Report Strong Q4 Profits Amid Investment Banking Surge 
UBS Predicts Potential Fed Rate Cut Amid Strong US Economic Data 
US Futures Rise as Investors Eye Earnings, Inflation Data, and Wildfire Impacts 
ECB Rate Hike in Focus as Oil Tops $100 
European Stocks Rally on Chinese Growth and Mining Merger Speculation 
Moody's Upgrades Argentina's Credit Rating Amid Economic Reforms 
Japanese Yen Retreats as Dollar Rises Ahead of Fed, BOJ Rate Decisions 
BOJ Set for 25-Basis-Point Rate Hike as Yen Weakness Fuels Inflation 
FxWirePro- Crypto Weekly Alpha: ETF Rebounds, L2 Rallies & Key Resistance Levels 
Mexico's Undervalued Equity Market Offers Long-Term Investment Potential 
U.S. Treasury Yields Expected to Decline Amid Cooling Economic Pressures 
AI is supercharging money scams – here’s what you can do to protect yourself 
Yen in Focus as BOJ, Fed Rate Hikes Reshape Currency Markets 
RBA Says ASX Still Falls Short on Governance and Risk Controls 
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AUD remained in ranging mode, mostly between 0.7747 and 0.7162:
Remains contained in a consolidative range of 0.7500-0.7600.
AUDUSD in medium term perspective: Lower to 0.7400. The US dollar’s impressive post-election rally may have paused, but still, has potential to rise further during the months ahead. As stated in our previous post on technicals, the major downtrend has been sliding through sloping channel but in the recent past it has gone into consolidation pattern (stuck in a range between 0.7747 levels on north & 0.7162 levels on south) but after testing support 0.7162 levels the prevailing upswings may prolong up to channel resistance (refer monthly plotting).
The Fed’s assertive tightening bias plus US fiscal expansion should maintain upside pressure on US interest rates and the US dollar.
Moreover, against that coal and iron ore are likely to sustain a good portion of their dramatic rises, and economic data for Q4 and Q1 should improve, but these forces are subservient to the US dollar’s trend. Australia’s AAA rating will remain an issue into the May budget.
OTC updates & option strategy:
Initiate longs in 2m AUDUSD (0.5%) in the money -0.55 delta put; simultaneously, short 2m (2.5%) out of the money call (strikes at 0.7750) at net debit.
AUDUSD's higher IVs with negative delta risk reversal can be interpreted as an opportunity for put longs as the market reckons the price has downside potential for large movement in the days to come which is resulting option holders’ on competitive advantage.
Rationale: Let’s glance on sensitivity tool for 2m IV skews would signify the interests of OTM put strikes that would imply that the ATM puts the higher likelihood of expiring in-the-money, so writing overpriced OTM calls would be a smart move to reduce hedging cost.
Fed Chair Yellen delivered hawkish comments on Wednesday, adding that the economy is approaching the Fed's dual mandate of inflation and employment. She further mentioned that the US is near full employment and with inflation figures stabilizing; there is a need for gradual Fed tightening, although she did not mention the exact timing of an interest rate hike.
