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With summer coming to a close, copper demand conditions in China have improved markedly.
Orders for low voltage copper cables used in real estate construction have increased and production at major copper wire rod companies has stabilized.
Imports of copper cathodes into China should increase. With Chinese domestic price trading at a premium to the LME, imports are now profitable.
Drops in net refined copper imports over the last two months combined with restocking activities ahead of the mid-Autumn Festival spurred by lower copper prices have tightened the domestic market and pushed the physical copper price above the listed exchange price.
Likewise, the opening of the arbitrage window will also likely result in lower exports. Since 2012, there has been a meaningful step up in total Chinese export volumes as a result of an expanding number of Chinese smelters receiving tolling licenses.
Under tolling agreements, copper smelters are allowed to import copper concentrate without paying the 17% value-added tax while simultaneously avoiding the 10% export tax as long as they export the refined copper.
The cyclicality in the export trend, however, has not changed: a deeply negative import arbitrage triggers spikes in Chinese refined copper exports.
With the import arbitrage hovering around parity, we expect September exports to taper off their July levels trending towards a more normalized 20 kmt per month level as some Chinese smelters will continue to export under the tolling agreements.
