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The Chilean peso upswing is likely to prolong further and the positive stance on EM FX with the strongest point of its rally likely in Q4 2017. Copper prices have risen to highest levels since Dec-2014 – the commodity constitutes almost 50% of the total Chilean exports.
The Societe Generale’s model for Chilean Peso-copper pins USDCLP fair value at 588, which is largely in line with the technical analysis indication of 593/582 should bears manage to breach below 617 (refer monthly charts). Both leading & lagging indicators to substantiate this bearish stance.
Technically, it is also expected that the copper to extend its rally towards 7200 from the current levels of 6700 (copper to reach 7215-7250), which can add to the USDCLP downside momentum. A longer period of stability in the Chinese growth ahead of Q4 2017 National Congress and recent CNH rally will also boost CLP, given that renminbi is 28% of the CLP REER basket of the BIS. Chilean growth has also likely bottomed out in H1 2017 as the Escondida copper mine issue is now resolved. GDP growth should pick up to 2% plus levels, with FDI inflows pressuring USDCLP lower.
Hence, we advocate staying short in USDCLP NDFs of 3m tenors, at spot reference of 625.30, selling via 3m NDFs is for the southward target at 588 (5.92%) but maintain strict stop above the top end of the range at 640 (-1.90%). The trading horizon is 3 month and it is likely to offer a neutral carry.
