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Energy: The post-OPEC meeting slide in prices has lasted longer and pushed lower than we had anticipated in late May. Top down balances still give cause for optimism, but the necessary adjustment will be forced back onto shale producers via lower prices. Brent price forecasts are lowered to $50/bbl and $52/bbl in Q3 & Q4, respectively, and WTI to $47/bbl and $49/bbl.
Although WTI crude prices have resurged from the lows of 42.03 levels we don’t foresee any dramatic upward moves above 21EMA (i.e. 45.0585 levels)
The storage tanks at their tank farm in Cushing. The U.S. pipeline operators are selling their underused space at steep discounts to keep crude flowing - angering shippers and distorting an already opaque market for oil trading.
Precious metals: Global economic activity continues to come in line with expectations and Chinese growth has stabilized, prompting our tactical long positions in base metals. Going deeper into the year, however, we see Chinese demand sequentially declining, thus putting pressure on industrial metals prices.
Gold prices edged higher in European trade on Wednesday, as the U.S. dollar and global stock markets pulled back, boosting the appeal of the yellow metal.
Comex gold futures were at $1,252.52 a troy ounce by, up $5.55, or around 0.5%. Yellow metal edged higher to notch its fourth gain in five sessions.
Despite the decent growth, inflation numbers continue to come in soft, keeping precious metals prices largely range bound. Stay tactically short gold.
Silver has been experiencing a slow correction and has achieved an interim support at $16.48/16.36, the 76.4% retracement from May lows.
Trade recommendations:
Buy Dec'17 Brent 51/54 with 58 RKI 1*2 ratio call spreads
Add longs in 3M vs staying short in 6M 180:100 vega-weighted gold straddle calendars (vol pts).
Sell Jun'18 45 puts (1 time notional) vs buy 38 puts (2.5 times notional) inverse ratio put spread Zero-cost long 7M 21% OTMS XAGUSD puts vs short 7M 10% OTMS XAUUSD.
