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FxWirePro: Breakout looms in EUR/USD; retail sentiment points to bearish bias

Euro suffers as USD gains,

  • The dollar has emerged as the victor after long Easter weekend as investors rushed to buy green buck facing geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East, economic weakness in the Eurozone, Brexit uncertainties in the UK and stronger U.S. economy, which is diverging from the rest of the world.
  • On 15th of April, we reported a possible upside breakout in EUR/USD last week as bulls cleared a key channel resistance. The break was significant as the EUR/USD recovered from its 2018 low and cleared a down trending channel resistance that has been in place since the beginning of the year. See chart for greater clarity.
  • As the break out happened, the EUR/USD retail sentiment flipped to net short on EUR/USD, giving the pair a bullish bias.
  • However, the following price action made it clear that the momentum was not with the breakout bulls and retail sentiment report also showed that the flip was only temporary.
  • As the breakout turns out to be a false one, we are witnessing sharp sell-off in EUR/USD, as the dollar recovers.

Outlook ahead:

  • With the upside breakout turning out to be a false one and EUR/USD being back to 2018 low area, we now expect a breakout of the area and for the EUR/USD to reach the channel support around 1.105 area. However, there is likely to be a halt around 1.112 area.

 

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