Expecting weak exports, strong imports and smaller trade surplus in South Korea

The interim data to 20 October point to weak exports and strong imports, which is reflected in the forecasts. Exports are expected to decline from $43.5bn in September to $43.0bn in October, which would be rather significant slowdown considering the Chuseok holidays in September. 

Imports are likely to pick up from $34.6bn in September to $39.0bn in October, which can be interpreted as a technical rebound after the weakness in August and September. The trade surplus will likely show a steep decline as a natural outcome of weak exports and strong imports. An additional slowdown in exports would be bad for the Q4 growth outlook, but an increase in imports can be considered as evidence of a domestic demand recovery. 

"We believe the trade data should be taken with a grain of salt", says Societe Generale.