Market Roundup
- RBNZ Q1 inflation expectations off, 1.11% in year, 1.8% in two, Nov 1.59%, 2.06%, moves further away from midpoint of central bank's target band.
- San Francisco Fed Williams won't rule out a rate hike in June.
- Land area for new China real estate developments drops 25% in 2014.
- European repo market contracts, affected by regulation.
- Japan Jan corp service price index -0.5% m/m, +3.4% y/y, ex-sales tax hike -0.5% m/m, +0.7% y/y.
Economic Data Ahead
- (0200 ET/0700 GMT) Germany Q4 GDP details. +0.7% q/q, +1.5% y/y consensus; flash +0.7%, +1.6%.
- (0245 ET/0745 GMT) France Feb business climate index, 99 consensus; previous 99.
- (0315 ET/0815 GMT) Switzerland Q4 non-farm payrolls; previous 4.227 mln.
- (0500 ET/1000 GMT) Euro Zone Jan inflation final, -1.6% m/m, -0.6% y/y consensus; flash -0.1%, -0.6%.
- (0500 ET/1000 GMT) Euro Zone Jan ex-food/energy, -1.8% m/m, +0.6% y/y consensus; previous +0.3%, +0.7%.
- (0500 ET/1000 GMT) Italy Dec current account balance; previous bln surplus.
- (0900 ET/1400 GMT) US Dec CaseShiller 20, -0.2% m/m nsa, +4.3% y/y consensus; previous -0.2%, +4.3%.
- (0945 ET/1445 GMT) US Feb Markit services PMI flash, 54.0 consensus; previous 54.2, composite 54.4.
- (1000 ET/1500 GMT) US Feb Richmond Fed comp/services/mfg shipments indices; previous 6, 14, 10.
- (1000 ET/1500 GMT) US Feb consumer confidence index, 99.6 consensus; previous 102.9.
- (1030 ET/1530 GMT) US Feb Texas services sector outlook/revenues indices; previous -2.8, +12.1.
Key Events Ahead
- N/A Greece to submit final reform list, EuroGroup afternoon teleconference.
- N/A OECD UK economic survey release, Spain 3/9-month Treasury bill auctions.
- (0410 ET/0910 GMT) BoE MPC Forbes speech at London conference.
- (0430 ET/0930 GMT) ECB 7-day refi at fixed 0.05%, E140 bln allotment expected, previous E122.1 bln.
- (0500 ET/1000 GMT) BoE Gov Carney parliamentary testimony.
- (0500 ET/1000 GMT) Italy E2.5-3 bln 2017 CTZ and E0.5-1 bln 3.1% 2026 BTPei auctions.
- (0900 ET/1400 GMT) ECB Pres Draghi speech at Frankfurt ECB event.
- (1000 ET/1500 GMT) FOMC Chair Yellen semi-annual Senate testimony.
- (1030 ET/1530 GMT) ECB/Finland CB Liikanen speech at Helsinki seminar.
- (1345 ET/1845 GMT) BoC Gov Poloz speech at Western University, press conference to follow.
FX Recap
EUR/USD opened in Asia at 1.1335 and was steady at 1.1330 after sliding about 0.4 percent on Monday as the boost gained from the EU-Greece deal over the weekend petered out. Not much price action was seen in Asia and the pair traded in a tight 1.1323-41 range. Market now focuses on Janet Yellen's testimony which is expected to be not as dovish as in the past.
USD/JPY continues trading in a narrow range below the 120 level. On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at 120.82 (Dec 23 high), and a break above could extend the gains to 121.84-91. On the flipside, pair is likely to find support at 118.51 and further at 117.17.
AUD/USD fell to fresh 3-day low at 0.7767 in the Asian trading and currently trades at 0.7774, down 0.40 percent. The pair expected to stay underpinned ahead of Fed Yellen's testimony scheduled later in the day. It sees resistance at 0.7799 levels, and further at 0.7811 levels. On the downside, support is located at 0.7755 and a break below could extend the losses to 0.7721.
NZD/USD came under pressure after a survey showing easing of business managers' near-term inflation expectations in the first quarter was released, supporting expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged well into next year. It slid 0.7 percent to 0.7475, moving away from the one-month high of 0.7574 hit last week. Pair's immediate support is seen at 0.7487 and resistance around $0.7560/70.
