EUR/USD: FOMC Minutes Loom as Pair Pauses Below Resistance

EUR/USD showed a minor pullback ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes.  It hit an intraday high of 1.13402 and currently trading around 1.13367.

The FOMC Minutes from the May 6–7, 2025 meeting, expected to be released today at 2:00 PM ET, will give thorough insights into the Federal Reserve's discussions on the U.S. economic outlook and possible interest rate changes, which market participants will carefully examine for clues about the Fed's views on inflation, growth, and future policy adjustments following their decision to hold rates stable, therefore maybe causing volatility across several asset classes as investors modify their projections.

U.S. Durable Goods in April 2025 Orders fell 6.3% month over month as a result of a dramatic decrease in orders for transportation equipment; the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for May 2025 strongly recovered to 98.0 driven by better expectations amid easing trade conflicts, therefore suggesting a possible boost to consumer expenditure notwithstanding continuing worries over tariffs and inflation.

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD

The pair is holding below the short and long-term moving average in the hourly chart. Near-term resistance is seen at 1.1365; a break above this may push the pair to targets of  1.14250/1.1500.  Major bullish momentum is likely only if prices are able to break above the 1.160 target of 1.1660. On the downside, support is seen at 1.12650 any violation below will drag the pair to 1.1200/1.1150/1.1090/1.1050/1.100.

Market Indicators and Trading Strategy

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)-  Bearish

Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) - Neutral

 It is good to sell on rallies around 1.13650 with a stop-loss at 1.1425 for a  target price of 1.1150.