ECB's Steady Hand, EUR/USD's Strong Footing: Ready for the Next Leg Up?

EUR/USD  showed a minor sell-off after the ECB's monetary policy. It hit a high of 1.17795 and is currently trading around 1.117344. Overall trend remains bullish as long as support 1.1670 holds.

Having lowered interest rates before and stable eurozone inflation at about its 2% goal, the European Central Bank (ECB) decided on July 24, 2025 to maintain its key rates unchanged—deposit facility at 2. 00%, main refinancing operations at 2. 15%, and marginal lending facility at 2.40%—adopting a "wait and see" stance. Although no new macroeconomic projections were published ahead of the September 2025 update, the ECB noted risks including US-EU trade tensions, possible euro appreciation-induced disinflation, and more general economic volatility from artificial intelligence, digitalisation, and geopolitical fragmentation. Reaffirming its 2% inflation target and flexible tool usage, the ECB's revised policy approach emphasizes vigilance against outside shocks and anchored inflation expectations, hence indicating that future policy changes depend on arriving data and not anticipated before September.

The pair is holding above the 55 EMA,above 200 EMA, and 365 EMA in the 4 -hour chart. Near-term resistance is seen at 1.1780, a break above this may push the pair to targets of  1.1800/1.1835/1.19090/1.1956/1.200. . On the downside, support is seen at 1.1700; any violation below will drag the pair to 1.1670/1.1600/1.155.

Market Indicators and Trading Strategy

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)-  Bullish

Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) - Neutral

 It is good to buy on dips around 1.1720 with a stop-loss at 1.1665 for a target price of 1.1835.