Commodity currencies hurt by oil, Asian currencies by disappointing data

Commodity currencies retreated on oil prices hitting a new low for the year. WTI crude oil prices slipped to $37.65/barrel yesterday, its worst level since Feb 2009. OPEC did not limit production and will keep oversupply of oil amidst weak demand. USD/CAD traded to 1.35 for the first time since Jun 2004. AUD/USD fell to 0.7265 yesterday after it failed to break above 0.7382, its highest level on 12 Oct. The currency pair is likely to retreat further from the top of its four-month range between 0.70 and 0.74, especially if the 2Y AU bond yield falls back from the ceiling of its 1.70-2.10% range seen since Feb. AUD could give back more gains if the unemployment rate out on Thursday moves back above 6% again in Nov15. 

Asia ex Japan currencies also retreated on dismal data. USD/TWD firmed to 32.891 yesterday from 32.728 last Fri after Taiwan exports contracted by 16.9% (YoY) in Nov15, worse than the 16.7% fall in Jan12. Foreign reserves in Nov15 fell in China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Indonesia and the Philippines. USD/CNY closed at 6.4082, close to its post-devaluation 6.4124 high seen on 25 Aug. There will be caution about China's export performance today after the disappointment in Taiwan. USD/SGD bounced off its 1.39 support to close above 1.40 at 1.4060. USD/PHP continues to stay, over the past month, at/above 47.040, its high seen in September. USD/IDR has been rising modestly after it bottomed in October. So far, its upside has been capped by the 100-day moving average, currently around 13865. Next week's anticipated US rate lift-off may change that.