Chinese key economic releases likely to set the mood for next week

Monday there are series of data coming out of China, which could set the mood for the weak.

• China GDP data for third quarter is sure to be most watched, is set to be released at 2:00 GMT. In second quarter economy grew at 7% from a year ago and 1.7% from last quarter.
   
• Obviously first major focus will be on headline growth but economists believe details would be crucial too.
   
• According to spokesman of China's statistics bureau, any growth above 6.5% would be considered good and within official target. Market expectation is for growth to drop to 6.7-6.8%.
   
• Second most watched would be GDP deflator, which is a measure of inflation and in first quarter deflator was negative at -0.33, suggesting deflation in the economy.
   
• Two sectorial growth will be under close scrutiny, services and infrastructure, because former now provides larger contribution to GDP and second remains backbone of the economy accounting for 44% of overall output.
   
• Focus will also be on stimulus in the infrastructure sector. Infrastructure investment has grown 18.4% for the first eight months of the year. Close watch will focus on if the pace has increased or not.

As GDP details sets the initial mood, focus will turn on to retail sales and urban investment data to be released at 5:30 GMT.

Any better than expected data such as 7% GDP would boost risk on sentiment in the market and commodities and currencies related to China might go for a rally. However worse than expected data and continued slowdown will bring back risk aversion.