Chinese exports likely to have dropped further in October, imports to improve in months ahead

Chinese trade data for the month of October is set to release tomorrow. According to a DBS Bank research report, exports are likely to have dropped further to -4 percent on a year-on-year basis, from September’s -3.2 percent in the midst of the lingering trade tension with the U.S. China’s new export order PMI index dropped to 47 in October and has remained in contraction zone for 17 months. Moreover, the export performance will continue to be clouded by moderating global demand, with both manufacturing PMIs of euro area and Japan remaining in contraction zone for nine consecutive months.

In the meantime, imports are likely to have rebounded slightly to -7.8 percent from -8.5 percent in anticipation of the rising infrastructure investment.  The local government bond rose 10.1 percent year-on-year in September.

“Imports should improve alongside stimulus in the months ahead”, added DBS Bank.