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China's weak trade data just ahead of FOMC precipitated a weaker CNY

China's November exports remained sluggish (-6.8% y/y) while the import contraction narrowed (-8.7%). Looking forward, a sharp export rebound is not expected, although the import contraction is likely to narrow further on the back of base effects. 

"Given the weakness in new export orders and import indices, we lowered our full-year 2015 export and import forecasts to -3.2% (from -1.5%) and -14.3% (-12.8%), respectively", says Barclays.

Meanwhile, CPI inflation rose to 1.5% y/y in November (Oct: 1.3%), led by food, while PPI deflation was unchanged at -5.9%. Attention will likely shift to real activity indicators in November (released on 12 December). IP and FAI are likely to point to a further moderation in growth momentum, while strong auto sales is expected to have supported retail sales. 

This week also marked the largest CNY move since the August devaluation as the PBoC continues to lower the CNY fixing. Indeed, the CNY fixing was lowered by about 400 pips this week, reaching the lowest level since August 2011. It is believed that the move reflects the recent weakness in trade and FX reserve data. 

On policy developments, China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange relaxed QFII regulations by allowing foreign institutional investors to allocate their quota between open-ended funds and other capital accounts on 8 December. On the other hand, the PBoC reportedly suspended new applications for the RQDII investment scheme (Reuters). The suspension may reflect the government's concern over persistent capital outflows.

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