China’s trade growth likely to have continued recovering in January

China’s trade growth is expected to have continued with its rebound in January. Even if the earlier timing of New Year’s Day argued for weaker trade figures, the growth at the start of 2016 was unusually soft. Moreover, the recent data from other Asian exporters indicated towards continued positive momentum in China’s and external demand.

“Even in the case of data disappointment, we see little reason to forecast a deviation from the previous recovering trend”, stated Societe Generale in a research report.

Thus, China’s exports growth is expected to have rebounded to 4.9 percent in January, whereas imports growth is likely to have come in at 15.4 percent, as compared with 0.6 percent and 10.8 percent growth in December respectively, in CNY terms, added Societe Generale. The suggested sequential rates would be greatly consistent with those in the month of January when the Chinese New Year started.

Meanwhile, the Chinese economic growth is expected to ease to 6.5 percent this year, slowing from the average of 7.4 percent in the years from 2012-2015, stated Commerzbank in a research report.  In 2018, the economic growth is likely to further decelerate to 6.3 percent. This suggests that the central bank’s monetary policy would probably remain expansionary, added Commerzbank.