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UK Monetary Policy Committee will meet on July 14 for the first time following the EU referendum result. Eyes are now set at the forthcoming reaction of policymakers to the Brexit vote. Market expectations are riding high for a base rate cut amid the heightened uncertainty. The prospect of more monetary stimulus has pushed bond yields and the pound to fresh lows.
Markets have priced in an 80 percent probability of a cut in July. They have priced in approximately 1.5 cuts by year end, notes Danske Bank.
Bank of England’s (BOE) governor Mark Carney said, during a press conference, on July 5 that the BoE is ready to inject as much as £250 billion ($324 billion) of extra capital into the financial system in case of economic downturn arising out of Brexit. Carney said earlier on Tuesday that the expected hit to Britain's economy from last month's Brexit vote could prompt the Bank to provide more stimulus.
"We expect it to cut the Bank Rate down to 0.00 percent in August and possibly ease using unconventional tools when the full assessment of Brexit is made. We think the BoE will resume buying assets under its Asset Purchase Facility (APF) but it could also use its Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) in order to boost lending to the real economy,” said Danske Bank in a report.
Traders in Financial Futures data show that both leveraged funds and asset managers have increased their implied dollar longs considerably. In EUR and GBP, leveraged funds added a significant amount of net shorts, while asset managers extended their bearish sentiment moderately.
