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Canadian retail sales rose 1.7% (m/m) in November, flying past expectations calling for a modest gain of 0.2%. The strength in sales was strong in real terms too, with volumes up 1.5% on the month.
With the exception of gasoline stations (-0.6%), all subsectors recorded sales increases, representing 90% of retail trade.
Significant gains were recorded among motor vehicle and parts dealers (+3.5%), sporting goods stores (+3.0%) and 'building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers' (2.4%).
Notable gains were also recorded among retailers associated with Black Friday promotions and an earlier start to the holiday season. As a result, sales at clothing and clothing accessories stores were up 2.2% on the month, despite unusually warm weather dampening demand for winter clothing.
On a provincial basis, sales rose between 0.8% and 2.3% (m/m) in all provinces. Notably, sales in Ontario which typically make up over a third of national sales - were up 2% (m/m).
With retail volumes up 1.5% on the month, today's report is undeniably positive. In addition to an earlier start to the holiday season, sales were also buoyed by the low Canadian dollar which is helping to keep more spending within Canada. In November alone, 775 thousand fewer Canadians visited the United States compared to year-ago levels - 70% of those being daily visits that are associated with shopping.
At the same time, an additional 130 thousand Americans took the trip up north - a particular benefit for retailers closest to the border. In conjunction with robust gains in manufacturing and wholesale volumes, today's report points to potential upside for Q4 real GDP growth, which is currently tracking between 0 and 0.5% (annualized). However, an earlier start to the holiday season may imply some softness for sales in December.
"Modest employment gains and high debt burdens should limit growth in consumer spending, which we expect to average around 1.5% in 2016",says TD Economics.
