Brexit Lessons- Think the unthinkable

If there’s a valuable lesson to be learnt from the outcome of the UK EU referendum, is to always think the unthinkable even when the last run of opinion poll findings going in to a referendum start to move in the opposite direction to what was initially the case.

Dare to think the unthinkable and stick with it, even if the bookies’ odds overwhelmingly suggest otherwise. We always think it is the prospect that ‘Brexit’ doesn’t happen, if some of the UK’s well-respected constitutional/political experts are to be believed, and assuming that Henry VIII clauses are not used to drive through legislation.

Amid reports of around 1 million voters who voted in favour of ‘Brexit’ suddenly expressing regret for the way they voted, as the harsh reality of what life could be like in a UK outside of the EU dawned on them, as well as a signed petition of over 2 million signatures requesting another referendum be held, it is possible that a parliamentary debate and vote could be held on this issue.  And as if this weren’t enough, economic/financial developments are adding to the pressure for politicians and parliamentarians of varying complexions to follow the strictures of parliamentary democracy when it comes to referendum results.

Two ratings agencies have now downgraded the UK’s sovereign credit status (S&Ps to AA from AAA, and Fitch to AA from AA+) and the circa 130 billion pounds wiped off the value of shares equates to about 15 years’ worth of UK gross contributions to the EU!!

In a well-written constitutional article in the Guardian newspaper, it is argued that ‘Brexit’ can still be stopped in Parliament, before the next PM invokes Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, bearing in mind that the referendum result is not legally binding.

The argument goes thus: The 1972 European Communities Act – which first legitimised the UK’s entry into the EU, must first be repealed by Parliament before Article 50 is invoked. MPs have a right to vote not to repeal the act if they think it is best for the UK to stay in.

It is clear in Article 50 that “Any member state may decide to withdraw from the EU in accordance with its own constitutional requirements”- The UK’s constitutional requirement is that there must first be parliamentary approval. Also, UK democracy neither allows nor requires decision making by plebiscite. Decision-making is the prerogative of the elected parliamentary law makers.

So, come September, when a new PM is announced, and he/she introduces a parliamentary Bill to repeal the 1972 Act (such as the 2016 Repeal of the European Communities Act), the Scottish SNPs, the LibDems, at least 95 percent of the parliamentary Labour MPs and slightly over 55 percent of parliamentary Tory MPs, could potentially vote this down. If this happens, it means that Article 50 cannot be invoked by the PM without triggering yet another constitutional crisis.

Then, quite apart from the prospect of staring down a black hole of economic abyss, continued capital flight, a balance of payments crisis and continued downward pressure on GBP, should MPs vote to repeal the 1972 EC Act, there is also the consideration of an almost certain Scottish secession, should ‘Brexit’ be triggered, along with another bout of stock market volatility, as the transformation from Great Britain to Little England is completed.

So, a potential parliamentary vote-down of the repeal of the 1972 European Communities Act, that stops this ‘Brexit’ madness dead in its tracks, before it reaches the point of no return, is now arguably the unthinkable. Such would be considered a very GBP-positive development.