Menu

Search

  |   Commentary

Menu

  |   Commentary

Search

Australia underlying inflation likely to remain low but stable in Q1, says ANZ Research

Underlying inflation in Australia is expected to remain low but stable in Q1, with the average of the two core measures expected to have risen by 0.4 percent q/q. This would be the third consecutive 0.4 percent quarterly outcome and would see annual underlying inflation lift a touch to 1.7 percent y/y, from 1.6 percent y/y in Q4 2016.

While last week’s meeting minutes highlighted the Reserve Bank Australia’s (RBA) current focus on the labor and housing markets, the CPI print remains of critical importance. The RBA would be disappointed by any further deceleration in underlying inflation.

The ANZ Property-Council survey for Q2 reported a strong gain in sentiment toward residential prices. This measures tends to be coincident with house prices, implying momentum continued to be robust in Q2.

On a more forward looking note, the construction outlook in the survey tends to lead dwelling approvals and commencements by 3-6 months. The recent pickup in this index suggests that the sharp drop in building approvals over the second half of 2016 may be approaching an end.

"The RBA would be disappointed by any further deceleration in underlying inflation.  Our picks for headline and core are below market," ANZ Research commented in its latest report.

  • ET PRO
  • Market Data

Market-moving news and views, 24 hours a day >

October 24 09:00 UTC Released

EZMarkit Comp Flash PMI

Actual

55.9 bln EUR

Forecast

56.5 bln EUR

Previous

56.7 bln EUR

October 24 09:00 UTC Released

EZMarkit Serv Flash PMI

Actual

54.9 bln EUR

Forecast

55.6 bln EUR

Previous

55.8 bln EUR

October 24 12:55 UTC 213213m

USRedbook MM

Actual

Forecast

Previous

-1.4 %

October 24 12:55 UTC 213213m

USRedbook YY

Actual

Forecast

Previous

3.6 %

October 24 12:55 UTC 213213m

USRedbook MM

Actual

Forecast

Previous

-1.4 %

October 24 12:55 UTC 213213m

USRedbook YY

Actual

Forecast

Previous

3.6 %

October 24 13:00 UTC 218218m

MXFlash Trd Bal Non-EU*

Actual

Forecast

Previous

-0.7 Bln EUR

October 24 13:00 UTC 218218m

MX1st Half-Mth Infl YY*

Actual

Forecast

Previous

1.00 %

October 24 13:00 UTC 218218m

USIGAE Econ Activity MM

Actual

Forecast

Previous

-0.7 %

October 24 13:00 UTC 218218m

MXIGAE Econ Activity YY

Actual

Forecast

1.50 %

Previous

1.00 %

Close

Welcome to EconoTimes

Sign up for daily updates for the most important
stories unfolding in the global economy.