Menu

Search

  |   Commentary

Menu

  |   Commentary

Search

Australia underlying inflation likely to remain low but stable in Q1, says ANZ Research

Underlying inflation in Australia is expected to remain low but stable in Q1, with the average of the two core measures expected to have risen by 0.4 percent q/q. This would be the third consecutive 0.4 percent quarterly outcome and would see annual underlying inflation lift a touch to 1.7 percent y/y, from 1.6 percent y/y in Q4 2016.

While last week’s meeting minutes highlighted the Reserve Bank Australia’s (RBA) current focus on the labor and housing markets, the CPI print remains of critical importance. The RBA would be disappointed by any further deceleration in underlying inflation.

The ANZ Property-Council survey for Q2 reported a strong gain in sentiment toward residential prices. This measures tends to be coincident with house prices, implying momentum continued to be robust in Q2.

On a more forward looking note, the construction outlook in the survey tends to lead dwelling approvals and commencements by 3-6 months. The recent pickup in this index suggests that the sharp drop in building approvals over the second half of 2016 may be approaching an end.

"The RBA would be disappointed by any further deceleration in underlying inflation.  Our picks for headline and core are below market," ANZ Research commented in its latest report.

  • ET PRO
  • Market Data

Market-moving news and views, 24 hours a day >

August 16 12:30 UTC Released

USHousing Starts Number MM

Actual

1.155 mln

Forecast

1.220 mln

Previous

1.215 mln

August 16 12:30 UTC Released

USBuild Permits: Change MM

Actual

-4.1 %

Forecast

Previous

9.2 %

August 16 15:30 UTC 139139m

BRForeign Exchange Flows*

Actual

Forecast

Previous

0.361 Bln USD

August 16 23:50 UTC 639639m

JPForeign Bond Investment

Actual

Forecast

Previous

1624.2 bln JPY

August 16 23:50 UTC 639639m

JPForeign Invest JP Stock

Actual

Forecast

Previous

-37.7 bln JPY

August 16 23:50 UTC 639639m

JPExports YY*

Actual

Forecast

13.6 %

Previous

9.7 %

August 16 23:50 UTC 639639m

JPImports YY*

Actual

Forecast

17.0 %

Previous

15.5 %

August 16 23:50 UTC 639639m

JPTrade Balance Total Yen*

Actual

Forecast

392.0 bln JPY

Previous

439.9 bln JPY

August 17 01:30 UTC 739739m

AUFull Time Employment*

Actual

Forecast

Previous

62.0 k

August 17 01:30 UTC 739739m

AUEmployment*

Actual

Forecast

20.0 k

Previous

14.0 k

Close

Welcome to EconoTimes

Sign up for daily updates for the most important
stories unfolding in the global economy.