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We see ongoing crude oil's recovery is hindered again by the demand/supply equation. Today, US EIA is scheduled to announce the inventory levels of crude. This report tends to generate large price volatility from here onwards.
Supply outages and the measure in alterations to the production were to be taken in reaction to lower oil prices, these measures are serving to solidify the crude oil market equilibrium. However, the demand side remains a lot softer over H1 2016 (1 mb/d forecast), relative to H1 2015 (avg. growth of 1.8 mb/d).
The diesel projections pose a risk to refinery runs over Q2, although expectations have been attached on a healthy gasoline season, runs might be constrained because of the diesel market surplus, which could choke back demand for crude, and slowdown the pace of oil price recovery.
Although the physical markets are turning constructive, conviction around the supply tightness, as reflected also by time spreads, remains neutral given the event risk on 17 April.
The pull from the demand side to tighten market balances is weak, in our view. US and Chinese oil demand growth has slowed since the start of the year.
This compared to the 290 kb/d y/y growth seen in January 2015. Brazilian and Japanese oil demand has also weakened significantly in January.
The latest Petroleum Supply Monthly shows demand for the main four products in the US, lower y/y by 318 kb/d in January.
We expect better directional momentum after the meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC countries, although current expectation is for their actions to have limited impact given the lack of involvement in the freeze of producers that have the potential to grow output.
It was as if like yesterday, when market-watchers cheered on Saudi Arabia’s call (by a senior OPEC delegate in late March) to chip in an oil output freeze on April 17 when oil manufacturers meet in Doha. Oil prices surged considerably to touch above $41/bbl then in response.
The EIA Crude Oil stockpiles report is a weekly measure of the change in the number of barrels in stock of crude oil and its derivatives and it is forecasted to increase from previous -4.9M to 0.9M.
