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kiwi bears relentless, NZD/USD heads back toward 5 year low

  • Kiwi is moving away slightly from five year lows reached on Thursday. Analysts are now forecasting 25bp OCR reductions in July, September and October. This will take the OCR to a low of 2.5% this year.

  • A marked deterioration in NZ economic sentiment, evidenced by Consumer Confidence, Regional Economic Confidence and Employment Confidence surveys and reduction in global dairy prices to multi-year lows strengthens the cause for RBNZ cuts.

  • The sharp sell-off in Chinese equity prices whIch according to analysts are a good reflection of the Chinese economy's trajectory does not bode well  for the antipodeans.

  • Analysts at Westpac are now forecasting an average NZD/USD exchange rate of 62 cents in the December quarter of 2015. NZD/USD is currently trading at 0.67056, heading back towards 5-year lows. 

Resistance Levels:

R1: 0.6708 (10 4HMA)

R2: 0.6736 (July 2 high)    

R3: 0.6812 (10 DMA)                      

Support Levels:

S1: 0.6674 (30 DMA) 

S2: .6664 (2015 & 5 Yr Low Jul 2)

S3: 0.6602 (200-Month MA)                                                         

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