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Today FOMC will announce its monetary policy decisions at 18:00 GMT. This will be today's most watched event as market participants will be trying to gauge not only for hints over first rate hike but how hawkish FED is?
With Bank of England (BOE) preparing for its own rate hike at turn of the year, it is extremely vital to gauge how hawkish FOMC members are.
FED needs to hike rates by 25 basis points in today's meeting if its planning for two hike this year, however according to most in the market that doesn't seem to be the case.
Nevertheless, a statement is enough to add volatility in the market and reverse some directions.
What to watch out in FOMC statement today since no press briefing afterwards -
- September hike - Some analysts are expecting explicit hints from FOMC over September rate hike. Though it might seem unusual, FED did this exactly in 2004, before beginning a rate hike cycle.
- Economic outlook - More upbeat FED sounds, more bullish will be the dollar. FED is expected to sound upbeat today, as economic dockets have improved a lot in last few weeks.
- Global developments - Which developments are making the FED worry over rate hikes. How concern FED is over developments in China and commodity markets and if these are likely to impact its decision.
- Inflation outlook - How concern FED is over commodity rout and second round of drop in oil prices and if it will have any considerable impact on inflation outlook.
- Emerging markets and Dollar - Dollar has strengthen to multi-year and even decade high against many emerging market counterparts. How concern FED is over emerging markets development.
FXCM US dollar index is currently trading at 11990, with support around 11980. However Dollar is trading with weakness ahead of FOMC, especially against pound.
