What now for oil – WTI at $63/barrel is plausible

Oil is having its best month at least in last one and half year. Price is up close to 20% this month, though this higher change is due to lower oil prices.

It is too early to say that oil price is reversing here on, nevertheless oil has set an important bottom close to its 2009 post crisis low.

Key highlights -

• Price has broken above three month high which is definitely signs of strong bullish momentum. WTI is currently trading at 56.3/barrel. Short squeeze gathered pace after WTI successfully broke above $54/barrel last night. Similarly Brent has also gained grounds, trading at $63.1/barrel.
  
  
• Fundamentally speaking, much hasn't changed. Supply still remains at large and it expected to intensify when Iran enters market full-fledged latter half of the year. Nevertheless signs are plenty that lower oil prices are boosting overall demand. Miles travelled by car in US has reached new post crisis high.

Where price might be heading?

• Price pattern suggests that recent run off in crude is done with. It will keep creeping up, independent of dollar, however fall in dollar value would make the move faster.
  
  
• WTI might be targeting $63 - 65/barrel with an excessive short squeeze might lead to as high as $70, any price beyond such does not look feasible at this points.
  
  
• However long term bears will be entering trades near $60- $65 region, as medium term trend is yet to turn bullish.