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Upcoming Chinese data could heighten negative risk sentiment

Markets will keep focus on China data-deluge, including the GDP, industrial production and retail sales due tomorrow. Expectations are for data to remain weak. Barclays forecasts Q4 GDP growth data to have slowed further to 6.6 % y/y (consensus: 6.9%) from 6.9% in Q3. Industrial production is likely to have moderated, (Barclays: +5.9%y/y; consensus: 6.0%), retail sales (+11%y/y) and fixed asset investment (+10.1%y/y).  

PBoC has strongly signaled a desire for near-term stability by keeping its USD/CNY fixings stable at about 6.56 over the past week. With heightened risk aversion and poor Chinese equity sentiment, China will definitely not want to create volatility by allowing another wave of CNY depreciation.

Weak data could add pressures to the risk sell-off, considering below-consensus forecasts by Barclays. AUD and other EM Asian currencies of economies with stronger trade links to China such as KRW, TWD, SGD and MYR are likely to remain under pressure and underperform. 

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