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Korea-Japan conflict likely to reduce Japan’s GDP by no more than 0.1 pct this year, says Capital Economics
Eurozone’s industrial recession spill-overs and slowing employment growth likely to affect services sector, says Capital Economics
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Norwegian unemployment unlikely to have changed in November, retail sales to have dropped in October
US Treasury yields unlikely to rise much further over the next couple of years, says Capital Economics
University of Michigan sentiment index falls in early August
The University of Michigan sentiment index dropped in early August by 6.4 percent, considerably larger than the expected fall of 1.4 percent and among the largest falls of the past few years. Both the current conditions and expectations components contributed to the fall, although the contribution from expectations was much larger.
The current level of the index has moved to the low portion of the range of the last few years, noted Daiwa Capital Markets in a research report. The observation from January 2019 was a bit lower. It appears as though volatility in the equity market is influencing consumer moods, as the sharp fall in January after the swoon in stock prices in December, and equity volatility appears to have had an effect again.